Scotland’s climate change science and COP26

The event will consider current and future impacts of climate change, including its impact on temperatures and storms, heatwaves and food production. It will also discuss the societal action required to limit the impact of climate change and to meet ambitious net-zero targets.

The conference will provide an opportunity for the public to discuss these issues with, and to put questions to, leading climate scientists. It will also be an opportunity to learn more about COP26 and what we can expect from it.

In November 2021, the UK will host the 26th Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change in Glasgow. The meeting, referred to as COP 26 in shorthand, has been delayed by a year due to COVID19 restrictions. In this talk, Davie Warrilow will outline the development of international negotiations to deal with climate change, explain what the COP is for, how it works, what it feels like to be involved and what it is hoped it will achieve. This discussion was part of Scotland’s climate change science and COP26 conference held in October 2021.

This talk discusses the evidence for climate change and the evolution of our understanding of the recent finding that human influence on climate is unequivocal. It will discuss the risks posed by climate change, including due to extreme weather and climate events, how we investigate links between such events and climate change. It will also discuss risks associated with further warming. This discussion was part of Scotland’s climate change science and COP26 conference held in October 2021.

If implemented well, nature-based solutions on land are good for biodiversity, good for people and good for both climate change adaptation and mitigation. But not all land-based options are necessarily nature-based solutions. Most land-based greenhouse gas removal options can deliver benefits to the delivery of ecosystem services and to the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) if implemented appropriately. If implemented poorly, many land-based greenhouse gas removal options could harm biodiversity, ecosystem services and impede the delivery of the UN SDGs so appropriate implementation is critical. But the land can’t do it all! There is not enough land to soak up emissions from other sectors, like transport, energy generation aviation etc. Immediate and aggressive action is needed across all sectors of the economy if we are to meet net-zero targets. Not all nature-based solutions are land-based – ocean-based approaches are comparatively under-researched

Determining the long-term nature of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) presents a major step in understanding ocean temperature forcing, and is crucial both for placing the recently observed AMOC slowdown in the context of climate change and for predicting future climate. While the AMOC has been continuously monitored for over a decade, this record is not yet long enough to understand AMOC changes on climatic time scales. Longer historical AMOC time series have been generated using either numerical simulations or paleo-proxy reconstructions. However, large uncertainties remain over how the AMOC works, how it interacts with our climate, and what it will do in the future.

Determining the long-term nature of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) presents a major step in understanding ocean temperature forcing, and is crucial both for placing the recently observed AMOC slowdown in the context of climate change and for predicting future climate. While the AMOC has been continuously monitored for over a decade, this record is not yet long enough to understand AMOC changes on climatic time scales. Longer historical AMOC time series have been generated using either numerical simulations or paleo-proxy reconstructions. However, large uncertainties remain over how the AMOC works, how it interacts with our climate, and what it will do in the future.

The majority of greenhouse gas emissions stem from exploiting coal, oil and gas for energy. Ending unabated use of fossil fuels, and shifting to renewable energy, are hence critical to mitigating climate disruption. Despite abundant knowledge, and available clean technologies, action remains slow. Social science asks a delay is the norm, in the context of practices of energy production and consumption. The talk draws on empirical research to consider the role of state, market and civil society actors in energy systems, and argues that some affluent societies have greater capacity than others for a transition to clean energy.

In the lead-up to COP26 in Glasgow, this conference, held by the Scottish Centre of Royal Meteorological Society and the Royal Society of Edinburgh, brought together some of Scotland’s leading climate scientists to discuss the current understanding of climate science, including the latest assessment from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This event considered current and future impacts of climate change, including temperatures and storms, heatwaves and food production. It will also discuss the societal action required to limit the impact of climate change and to meet ambitious net-zero targets.